点击查看原文：How the Spurs spacing informs the moves they need to make

How the Spurs spacing informs the moves they need to make

What San Antonio has , and what they need.

I have long been in the camp that the Spurs biggest weakness is shooting, and how it impacts spacing. When we think about spacing, I think most of us probably think about space around pick and rolls. A guard and a screener run a pick and roll, and the three other players are spaced around the perimeter, ready to catch and shoot. Or maybe we think about the pure gravity that Steph Curry possesses, and the fear it induces, by sprinting around off ball screen after off ball screen, bending entire defenses around a shooting star, creating space for all the other actions the Warriors want to run. We used to think about spacing around a dominant post player like Tim Duncan, where he attracts a double team and kicks the ball out to, again, hopefully capable shooters ready to catch and score.

But regardless of which way space is created, the specific spaces on the floor matter. Some players are better in some spots than others. Timmy, for example, was elite from the left block, and “merely” great from elsewhere. Bringing in another player who was elite from the same spot would have been an example of diminishing returns. One of the reasons Tony Parker fit so well with Tim wasn’t just the pick and roll, but Tony shot it better from the opposite corner 3 and the other side of the paint- 38.3% from the right corner vs 34.6% from the left, and 42% vs 40% from the right and left midrange.

So what’s the best way to create space around Victor Wembanyama? To answer that, we need to figure out the spaces he seems most comfortable (and successful) operating from, and then do the same with other players currently in the rotation who seem like they are or could likely be part of the core moving forward. Since Wemby is clearly the most important piece, let’s start with him. This is Wemby’s shot chart from this season, presented by Statmuse (all of these come from Statmuse, which is super easy to work with, FYI) in a way you can roll over it with your mouse. Darker shades of blue indicate better shooting compared to the league average. For those of you on mobile or who don’t want to take the time to deep dive, he shoots better from the left wing 3 (37.3%) than the right (32%), and good from the top of the key (37.5%). He’s elite from the free throw line and to the left of it, and from the right corner 3, but all of those are on much smaller sample sizes. He is, unquestionably and unsurprisingly, elite around the rim.

Courtesy of StatMuse

Overall, he shot 142/403 from distance. I don’t have the ability to go back and watch every 3 he took, but I do vaguely remember him taking two to three “bad” 3s per game (rushed, early in the shot clock, weirdly off balance or apparently out of rhythm, etc), or somewhere between 90 and 120 bad 3s on the year. Sometimes you take and make a bad shot, and sometimes you take and miss a good shot, so we can’t assume that just replacing a bad one with a good one lets to an automatic one for one improvement. But if he replaces one bad 3 with one good 3 per game (better selection leading to 46 better shots using this season’s numbers), and goes from making one out of every four to one out of every three (still placing him below league average), he would have improved by a minimum of one percentage point. I think that is a reasonable floor for his improvement going into next year- it says nothing of any continued improvements as a result of skill development, practice, and health. I would put money on seeing much larger improvements overall, but let’s stick with the floor for now. Wemby is likely to continue to take a large diet of 3s and paint shots and not a ton inbetween, though maybe we’ll see more post ups as he gets more comfortable taking advantage of mismatches and develops more lower body strength to keep from getting muscled further out of the paint.

Ideal spacers around Wemby would be able to attack the rim and corners (especially the left corner) when he is on the perimeter, or replace him around the top of the key when he’s near the rim. Additionally, there is a lot of open space in the mid-range, and while it’s “the worst (least efficient) shot in basketball”, having someone who can take pull ups off the dribble from those spaces could help maximize space created by Wemby’s gravitational impact on pick and rolls and pick and pops.

First, some bad news: De’Aaron Fox for his career has not shot above average from anywhere on the perimeter, and is at his best in nearly all the same places Wemby is. But let’s compare Fox’s career to just his Spurs career, and let’s put a big asterisk next to Spurs career because of small sample size and injury- it should still be informative but far from conclusive.

Career:

Courtesy of StatMuse

Spurs season:

Courtesy of StatMuse

The main thing we see from Fox is that once he got to the Spurs, he was absolutely elite from some places where Wemby wasn’t: especially the left corner and the midrange. I think it is reasonable to project that Fox will shoot slightly above his career averages playing with Wemby, especially if he focuses more on where he was most efficient after he came to the Spurs. Again, big asterisk with the small sample sizes. Since those are so small, I won’t spend much more time on Fox.

Let’s look at Stephon Castle next.

Courtesy of StatMuse

The bad news is that Castle didn’t shoot above league average from anywhere. The worse news is that even if I limit it to post all-star break, when his role was more consistent, he still wasn’t above league average from anywhere. But he’s better from the corner opposite Fox, and from that right side in general. I love Castle, and his game across the board is likely going to improve, but he has a long way to go. I’ll leave it at that for now.

Devin Vassell

Courtesy of StatMuse

The first thing that jumps out about Devin’s shot chart for this season is that he’s elite from the right corner (46.7%, compared to the league average of 39%). He’s also at 41% from the left corner. He’s also four percentage points better on the right wing than left, and above league average on that side as well. Much e-ink has been spilled about his lack of consistency, and even though I agree with much of those criticisms, he’s one of the best spacers and best fitting spacers we have around Victor. He’s good from the wing opposite Wemby, indicating a good fit even while he’s playing outside. He’s also good from both corners, meaning he can provide spacing while Fox or Castle and Wemby are running pick and rolls or pick and pops. He’s less good at the top of the key where Wemby is at his best. As frustrating as his inconsistency and injury history have been, it’s going to be tough for the Spurs to move on from him given how well he fits on the offensive end, and some of the defensive improvement he demonstrated at the end of this season.

Jeremy Sochan:

Courtesy of StatMuse

You may have to squint a bit to see differences in Sochan’s shot chart from this season. He does his work primarily around the rim, where despite his injuries, he did shoot above average this season. Unfortunately, his perimeter game is all small sample size. If we look at his career thus far, though, it’s not much different beyond his improvements around the rim. He got a bit better this year compared to his career from the left wing and left corner. Those are also some of the same spots Victor (left wing) and Fox (left corner) are best from. Despite the clunky fit, the Spurs had some success early in the season playing Sochan in the dunker spot while Wemby was on the perimeter. To make that work moving forward, especially with Fox in the lineup, Wemby is going to have to do more picking and popping than picking and rolling, or Sochan is going to have to continue to improve from the wing and let it fly from the short corner when Fox goes to his preferred left. I would be curious to see what the offense looks like with Fox and Sochan running pick and rolls with Wemby moving more around the perimeter, or as a secondary diver following the main action. I think it’s safe to draw the conclusion that this fit is less organic on offense and will need to be more schemed up, particularly in a hypothetical five man unit with Castle and Vassell.

Keldon Johnson

Unfortunately for Keldon, his shot chart has significant overlap with Victor’s. He’s at his best from the top of the key, the rim, the right wing, and the right corner. He’s pretty weak from the left side and the mid range in general. Being able to hit from the right wing is a spot Victor is less likely to occupy, but the overall fit on offense is less than ideal. I thought Keldon showed some improvement this year, particularly on defense, but while Sochan has demonstrated enough strength and versatility on defense to make an awkard fit on offense particularly worth it, I’m not sure Keldon has- and I don’t think he’s elite enough on offense, even where he’s at his best, to justify being trusted as an elite sixth man. To be clear, I’m not actively advocating to move on from him right this second, but I think his contract is team friendly enough that he might be the best trade candidate among our younger players moving forward.

Courtesy of StatMuse

Julian Champagnie:

Champs- and I mean this as some mild praise- is the most average shooter on the Spurs roster. He’s been remarkably consistent, shooting about 37% from 3 in general, and being slightly above average from the left corner and slightly below from the right. He is less than a percentage point from average nearly everywhere else. I can’t think of another player who has been as remarkably middle of the road for the Spurs literally ever. You can make an argument that being average from everywhere is better than being great from just one spot, though, and I think the Spurs could do a better job of incorporating players like Champagnie alongside Wemby. I hope he continues to develop into someone who can shoot as well as Harrison Barnes can, because that’s the biggest thing missing from the current young core.

Courtesy of StatMuse

I’ll do the vets, Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes, quickly and together: they were both excellent offensive fits that were above average from basically everywhere. I don’t think either are really in the “long term” plans, though Barnes is “young” enough that he could stick around for a few more years. I don’t think there’s much more to say.

Paul:

Courtesy of StatMuse

Barnes:

Courtesy of StatMuse

Moving forward, while the Spurs do need to improve their shooting overall to help with spacing, finding players who can provide the right spacing is arguably more important. With such a young team, it’s still a little early to project exactly how players like Wembanyama, Castle, and to a lesser extent Sochan will develop their shots in the coming years. It seems reasonable to project some moderate (Wemby and Castle) to mild (Sochan and Fox) improvement based on pure development, scheming, and improvement in shot selection. With that improvement, spacing should continue to improve. At minimum, having more players who are elite from the corners could significantly improve spacing around Wemby.